Absent Mindedness

It's around 6 p.m.. I think I have almost finished my work in the department. So, I should update my antivirus and leave for the hostel. But OMG, where is the laptop? It's nowhere in the room. I am here since morning and how come I did not bother to check even once, if it was safe. But I can't think of the reason why it would vanish.  I haven't left the room unattended even for a while and anyways, today being holiday, not many people are there in the department.

Where have I left it. I am sure I had carried it with me to the department because initially, I had forgotten to take it and then when I realized, I unlocked the door again and went inside specially for picking up the laptop. I am trying to recall what had happened in the morning.  From hostel, I went to canteen for breakfast and reached department around 9.45. It means there are three possible places, where I could have forgotten it. Either I had kept it outside my hostel room while locking the door, secondly, I might have left it in the canteen and thirdly I may have kept it near the stairs while opening the side door of the department. None of them is a safe place for such things. Now, only God can take care of my laptop. And to add to the nightmare, today morning I had kept my hard disk in the same bag as laptop. It means, laptop is gone along with the data. There is no use of having a backup device... There is only one ray of hope... I have forgotten it in my room itself....

I have started praying, as I run towards the hostel. I open the room and am relieved to see the laptop resting on the bed. So, it means, in the morning I went inside specially to get the laptop, took it out from the cupboard, then, I kept it on the bed for locking the cupboard and came out completely forgetting, why I went inside. And then for the whole day, I didn't realize even once that I had done some such thing....

I don't know when I am going to change... Absent mindedness has been my long standing companion who seems to be in a no mood to betray me.....

Surprising Diversity

When you get an envelope, with a card in it, how do you open it? You may try and let us know the answer so that we get more data to test the null hypothesis

H0: The style of opening an envelope is independent of your native place. 

Vs. 

H1: The style of opening an envelope is influenced by your native place. 

Right now, the data at hand completely support the rejection of null hypothesis. It all started when Deep made an interesting observation, while giving her wedding cards. Being a north Indian by birth and having spent most part of her life there, she had placed the cards with their front facing the backside of the envelope. The reason is when you open an envelope by turning its backside to front (which we think is the easiest way to open, as you can see the flap and the opening) and take the card out, you should have the card’s front facing you. But, we Maharashtrians are used to seeing the cards with their front side touching the front side of the envelope (of course from inside), which means that the card’s backside faces you if you open the envelope from back. As a result, whenever we Maharashtrians get an envelope, we either try to take out the card without reversing it, (though, it’s a bit tedious), or unknowingly reverse the card, if we open the envelope from the backside (without even noticing that the card is already facing us).

Surprisingly, almost all the Maharashtrians and North Indians whom she handed over the cards followed their regional instincts. Now, considering the fact that no one teaches us how to open an envelope, and no traditions/rituals are involved, it’s really hard to believe that such regional diversity exists even in such small actions….

दोन पावलांच्या अंतरावर दोन स्मारकं....

आज ४ नोव्हेंबर, आद्य क्रांतिकारक वासुदेव बळवंत फडक्यांचा १६६ वा जन्मदिन... ब्रिटीश सरकार विरुद्ध सशस्त्र उठाव करण्याचा हा प्रयत्न लौकिकार्थानं फारसा यशस्वी झाला नसला तरी ब्रिटीशांना दहशत बसवण्यात फडके निश्चितपणे यशस्वी ठरले.

प्रसारमाध्यमे फारशी नसणाऱ्या १९ व्या शतकात देखील त्यांची कीर्ती केवळ महाराष्ट्रातच नव्हे तर देशाच्या कानाकोपऱ्यात पोचली होती. त्यामुळेच बंकिमचंद्र चट्टोपाध्यायांच्या आनंदमठ मध्येही फडक्यांचे कारनामे वाचण्यास मिळतात.

पकडले गेल्यानंतरही एडनच्या तुरुंगाचा दरवाजा उचकटून पळून जाण्याचा पराक्रम गाजवणारा 

 हा क्रांतिकारक. त्यांच्या या अचाट शक्तीचं मला लहानपणापासूनच आश्चर्य वाटत आलंय. पण नुकताच त्यांच्या शिरढोण येथील स्मारकाला भेट देण्याचायोग आला आणि मग त्यांच्या घरातला पाट पाहून त्यांची शरीरयष्टी किती भरभक्कम असेल याचा अंदाज आला. जोग परिवारानं ग्रामस्थांच्या सहकार्यानं अत्यंत उत्तमरीत्या घडवलेलं आणि जपलेलं हे स्मारक. फडक्यांच्या घरातील रवी, त्यांच्या आजोबांनी त्यांच्यासाठी खास बनवलेली बोकडाची गाडी अशा काही वस्तू आणि चित्र -शिल्पांनी युक्त असं हे स्मारक पाहून आम्ही धन्य झालो.

पण तिथून बाहेर पडताच समोर आलं ते फडक्यांचं घर... पुरातत्त्व खात्याच्या ताब्यात असणारी ही वास्तू .

"जो कोणी या वास्तूत फेरफार करील त्यास ५००० रु. दंड / ३ महिने कारावास" या स्वत:च्याच सूचनेला घाबरून बहुधा गवत नि कचरा काढण्याचं धाडस होत नसावं किंवा आत जाऊन कुणी काही फेरफार करू नये म्हणून वाटेवर गवत वाढवलेलं असावं....

दोन पावलांच्या अंतरावर दोन टोकाच्या स्थितीतली ही स्मारकं पाहून मनात शिरढोणवासियांबद्दल कृतज्ञता आणि सरकारी अनास्थेबद्दल विषण्णता दाटून आली....

Diwali with Some Unexpected Guests…

First of all Happy Diwali to the readers…. Hope you are enjoying this beautiful festival of lights…
This time we had a bunch of unexpected guests at our home for the Lakshmi Pujan. Here are their photographs…

I know our houses are always frequented by the mosquitoes; Yet I was surprised, due to their extended meeting time. Usually, it’s difficult to have them at a single spot for more than a few seconds, but this time almost 30 of them patiently seated on a wall for more than three hours… I wonder if they were enjoying their diwali get-together or were kind of hibernating to protect themselves from the smoke/noise of crackers…

Putting Chance to Work….

“Statistics and Truth – Putting Chance to work ” , a book which is on my “To be read ” list since long. Today is the day when world honours this chance for the work it has done for the betterment of the human race. Probably, the most widely discussed example of this leads us to Prof. Paul Meier, who died just two months ago. His randomization of trials was really a breakthrough in the way the treatments worked and has changed the lives of many terminally ill patients.

This science of uncertainty has conquered almost all the areas of our lives – from the proverbial rocket science to the daily chatter of a layman which involves many guesstimates. A look at the Google NGram shows how the usage of the word Statistics increased over the years… That’s mainly because of the vast amount of data we are continuously being bombarded with. In today’s age of information explosion, we have become more and more thirsty for the knowledge. This is because,

Knowledge is what we know
Also, what we know we do not know.
We discover what we do not know
Essentially by what we know.
Thus knowledge expands.
With more knowledge we come to know
More of what we do not know.
Thus knowledge expands endlessly. 

Moreover what we know is simply the data is not a knowledge. In fact ,

Uncertain knowledge + Knowledge of the amount of uncertainty in it = Usable knowledge 

That’s why the world has now started realizing the importance of this science of uncertainty. This tool, which once had a dubious distinction of giving fallacious conclusions is now an integral part of each and every field, as people have started believing in C R Rao’s words,

All knowledge is, in final analysis, history.
All sciences are, in the abstract, mathematics.
All judgments are, in their rationale, statistics. 

and without the judgments , we cannot move an inch further. Someone wisely anticipated this inevitable and ever growing need of Statistics and UN started celebration the 20th day of October as the World Statistics Day since 2010.

So, in the end my hearty wishes to the Statisticians, on the eve of 2nd World Statistics day. In fact all of us are statisticians as we are always trying to choose an optimal life-path by predicting the future outcomes on the basis of the past data, keeping in mind the constrains that we have. Still for the so-called nonstatisticians, what better day to start for the growth of the statistical component of your brain, so that the numbers can help us become efficient citizens because, as H G Wells has said,

“Statistical thinking will one day be as necessary for efficient citizenship as the ability to read and write”.

कोजागरीचा पाऊस

वाटलंही नव्हतं की एकाच पावसाळ्यात दोनदोनदा पावसावर post लिहावी लागेल म्हणून. पावसाच्या स्वागताला त्याच्या आठवणींची post लिहिली आणि आता आजच्या आठवणीची त्या पर्जन्यस्मृतीकोशात भर पडणार असं दिसतंय … आजकाल पावसाला माणसाशी मैत्री फारच आवडायला लागलीये असं दिसतंय …. मागच्या वर्षीही त्याचा पाय निघता निघत नव्हता… अगदी दिवाळीत फराळालाही तो आपल्यासोबत होताच … यंदाही एप्रिलमध्येच सुरु होऊनसुद्धा अजूनही तो रेंगाळतोय …

ऑक्टोबर महिना सुरु झालाय हे खरं गेल्या २ - ३ दिवसात चांगलंच जाणवायला लागलं होतं. ऑक्टोबर heat च्या प्रभावामुळे विद्यापीठातल्या रात्रीसुद्धा बोचऱ्या थंडीऐवजी घामेजलेल्या व्हायला लागलेल्या . आजचीही दुपार काही वेगळी नव्हती . वर्तमानपत्रात मात्र मॉन्सून परतला तरी आणखी २ - ३ दिवस पाऊस पडणार असं वेधशाळावाल्यांचं भाकीत आलेलं… पण अर्थात हवामान अंदाजात पाऊस पडणार असं सांगितलं की खुशाल छत्र्या / रेनकोट घरी ठेवायचे असं मानणारे आपण भारतीय . त्यामुळे पाऊस बिऊस येईल असं काही कुणाच्या गावीही नव्हतं …पण साऱ्यांना तोंडघशी पाडणार नाही तो पाऊस कसला …. गेल्या तीन वर्षात पुणेरी माणसांपेक्षाही पुणेरी पावसाचा विचित्र स्वभाव जास्त अनुभवायला मिळालाय . बहुदा शिवाजीमहाराजांच्या संगतीत त्यानं गनिमीकावा शिकलेला असावा . त्यामुळंच शत्रूला गाफील ठेवून मोक्याच्या क्षणी त्याच्यावर आक्रमण करून त्याला खिंडीत कसं गाठायचं हे त्याला पक्कं ठाऊक झालंय…

संध्याकाळी ४ ते ५ तर तो मनसोक्त बरसलाच , पण त्यानं पोट भरलं नाही म्हणून की काय … त्याची ७ च्या सुमारास सुरु झालेली 2nd inning अजूनही सुरूच आहे . आणि शिवाय त्याला साथ विजेची . खरं तर दोन्ही विजांची … मानवनिर्मित वीज जणू आपला पाठिंबा देण्यासाठी संपावर गेलीये तर त्याची सखी वीज त्याच्या इतक्याच जोरात प्रकट होऊन त्याला इमाने - इतबारे साथ देतीये . मेणबत्तीही आता संपत आलीये …. वीज चमकल्यानं क्षण्भरापुरती उजळून निघणारी झाडं , पाठोपाठ बहिरं करून सोडणारा ढगांचा गडगडाट , पावसाचा आणि वाऱ्याचा प्रचंड आवाज , हे सगळं अंधाऱ्या खोलीच्या खिडकीतून एकट्यानं अनुभवताना अगदी चित्रपटात किंवा कादंबरीत प्रवेश केल्यासारखं वाटतंय ….

आत्ताच आईच्या फोनमुळे मला असं कळलंय , की आज कोजागरी आहे . इतकावेळ ते मला माहीतही नव्हतं . चंद्र दिसला असता तर कदाचित आठवण झाली असती …. पण नभ मेघांनी आक्रमिल्यामुळे, शरदाच्या पिठूर चांदण्याऐवजी laptop च्याच प्रकाशात समाधान मानतीये. अनेकांच्या दुधाच्या आनंदावर विरजण घालायचं ठरवलेलं दिसतंय या पावसानं . hostel पासून चालायच्या अंतरात कुठंच आटवलेलं दूध न मिळाल्यानं रात्री बारा वाजता icecream खाऊन कोजागरी साजरी केल्याची आठवण आत्ताच एका मित्रानं फोनवर सांगितली , पण आज तर सगळ्याच नियोजित / उत्स्फूर्त कार्यक्रमांवर पावसाचं पाणी फिरणार असं वाटतंय … किंवा कदाचित यंदा त्यालाही लक्ष्मीला भेटायची इच्छा झाली असावी … म्हणून मग आज रात्री १२ पर्यंत कार्यरत राहून ‘को जागर्ति ?’ ला उत्तर द्यायचं ठरवलं असावं त्यानं …विजयादशमीला कुबेरानं रघुराजाच्या राज्यात पाडलेला सुवर्णमुद्रांचा पाऊस किंवा आजकाल माणसांच्या तोंडी असणारा पैशांचा पाऊस ह्या काय भानगडी आहेत ते बहुतेक लक्ष्मीकडून जाणून घ्यायचं असावं त्याला ….

Moment

Last week was a pretty hectic one. It all started last Friday. As I was working over a recently started problem, something struck my mind. There was a thing I could use to solve my long standing problem which I was about to wind up as it hadn’t moved an inch further in the last seven-eight months. This was a problem which we encountered in September 2010. We struggled over it for nearly three months but to no avail. We could neither prove nor disprove the result we were interested in. Finally, in December we decided to put it off indefinitely. But somewhere at the back of our mind, we had a feeling that the result must be true. So, I continued to have a look at it in-between. We were almost convinced that no existing techniques could solve this problem. So, I tried to develop something new to cater to this situation. But of course, it’s not a child’s play and that’s why I couldn’t progress much in that direction, though I used to work over it at least twice a week.

And then, last Friday the thought came that I could mould the things to fit in the existing setup. And on Sunday, the eureka moment came. I was thrilled to see the solution. Things fitted in so nicely as if it was just a jigsaw puzzle, made to give you a correct picture once you get a trick to fix it. I was experiencing something which Erdos would call a proof from THE BOOK; more elegant than we could have ever imagined. Over the next few days, the process of refining the arguments continued, to make the things more rigorous. And now, we have an almost surely correct proof for the almost sure convergence we were looking for.

That was a moment, when I could experience the joy of creation. Artistically, I have never been much creative nor do I have much of an aesthetic sense. But I used to enjoy making things when the directions were given. That’s why I think I love Mathematical things…. you can create something new even when you are restricted by the existing rules and regulations . Here’s the latest instance of my effort of creating something - the 3D model car made from the fevicol box (which contained the guidelines) with the measly accessories. (Blue and black pens to substitute for the colours. What else a doctoral student in Statistics can have, especially while staying in a hostel ? )

But now, I think I need to form a new set of rules for myself. I couldn’t resist the temptation of completing this car, when I saw the picture and wasted more than an hour in it. Right now also I am writing this post when I should have been working on the three assignments that I am expected to submit this week apart from my regular research work. Enough of the celebration for the newly discovered result; off to work now….