World Mental Health Day and Statistics

Today is World Mental Health Day. 

Recently, I stumbled upon an engaging visualization representing the increase in the 'deaths of despair' due to the pandemic. Here is a link for the same.

https://lifelines.periscopic.com/

Do use the arrow icons to get more information. For example, in one of the panels, you can play around the different levels of 'mental health care', 'employment status', and 'social connect' to see the effect of these variables on the number of deaths of despair.

In recent years, the overbearing use of social media has been cited as one of the leading causes of mental health issues. This is because so many of us, at one point or other, have felt jealous of someone else, looking at their lives on social media. But, as students of statistics, we must remember that the data on social media are the classic example of data 'missing not at random'. 

What is meant by that? 

We all have heard the problem of missing data in statistics and how it can affect our conclusions. There have been many developments in the field of probability and statistics about handling missing data. However, most of these focus on the data  'missing completely at random'. 

On the other hand, what we see missing on social media is not at all random. We see hundreds of stories of weddings, new cars, new jobs, new babies, family picnics, festivities and whatnot. But we rarely see things like breakups, divorces, job losses, prolonged illnesses, infertility struggles, piled up debts on these platforms, even though these could be happening to the same people. 

So, as statistics students, let us remember that the grass always looks greener on the other side because the data are missing not at random. 

and here is another example of 'data missing not at random', ironically, received thanks to the social media 😎 

अखेर त्यांनी लक्ष्मणरेषा ओलांडली…

गेल्या काही दिवसांपासून जी बातमी येऊ नये असं वाटत होतं, ती बातमी अखेर आली. आपल्या सर्वांच्या जिव्हाळ्याच्या ‘common man’ ला जन्म देणार्‍या आर. के. लक्ष्मण यांनी अखेर आपला निरोप घेतला.

लिहिता-वाचता येण्यापूर्वीच, म्हणजे स्वतःच्या आयुष्याच्या पहिल्या दशकापासूनच नियतकालिकांमधल्या रेखाचित्रांमध्ये गुंगून जाणार्‍या एका छोट्या मुलानं पुढं अनेक दशकं असंख्य भारतीयांना आपल्या रेखाचित्रांमध्ये गुंगवून ठेवलं. रेषांचं सामर्थ्य काय असतं हे दाखवून देऊन त्यांनी आपलं लक्ष्मण हे नाव जणू सार्थ ठरवलं. जे जे स्कूल ऑफ आर्ट मध्ये प्रवेश न मिळाल्यानं खचून न जाऊन त्यांनी आपली पेन्सिल खाली ठेवली नाही, हे आपलं सद्भाग्यच!

‘टाइम्स ऑफ इंडिया’ मधून आपल्याला भेटायला येणार्‍या या ‘common man’ नं तत्कालीन परिस्थितीवर मार्मिक टिप्पणी केलीच, पण त्याचबरोबर अनेकदा ही टिप्पणी कालातीत बनून गेली. उदाहरणादाखल हे रेखाचित्र,

त्यांचे ज्येष्ठ बंधू आर. के. नारायण यांच्या ‘मालगुडी डेज’ साठी त्यांनी काढलेली चित्रंदेखील तितकीच बोलकी होती. त्यांच्यामुळे आपल्याला मिळालेला आणखी एक दोस्त म्हणजे एशियन पेंट्सचा ‘गट्टू’. 

त्यांनी रेखाटलेलं प्रत्येक पात्र हे अगदी साधं आणि आपलंसं वाटतं. त्यामुळेच आज एका कलाकाराला मुकल्याचं दुःख आहेच, पण त्याचबरोबर आपल्या अगदी जवळचं कोणीतरी गेल्यासारखी पोकळी निर्माण झालीये. 

सफर संभाव्यतेच्या विश्वातील - ३

सफर संभाव्यतेच्या विश्वातील - २ 

१९२० सालच्या उन्हाळ्यातील एक निवांत दुपार. केम्ब्रिज विद्यापीठाच्या दिग्गज प्राध्यापकांपैकी काही मंडळी आपल्या कुटुंबातील सदस्यांबरोबर चहा पीत गप्पा मारत बसली होती. तितक्यात उपस्थितांपैकी एका बाईंनी कपात चहा आधी ओतला की दूध यानुसार चहाची चव बदलते असं मत व्यक्त केलं. जमलेली सारीच मंडळी विद्वान. त्यामुळे काहींनी एकूणात मिश्रण तेच असल्यानं क्रम बदलून काय फरक पडणार अशी टिप्पणी केली. अचानक एक किरकोळ अंगयष्टीचा तरूण पुढे आला. "दुधात चहा ओतला आणि चहात दूध ओतलं तर चवीत फरक पडतो की नाही हे प्रयोग करून तपासून पहायला हवे " असं त्यानं सुचवलं. सर्वप्रथम त्या बाईंना तयार चहाचा एक कप देऊन तो कोणत्या प्रकारे बनवला आहे हे ओळखण्यास सांगायचं असं ठरलं. प्रत्यक्षात दोन्ही प्रकारच्या चहाच्या चवींमध्ये काही फरक नसला, तरी अंदाजाने उत्तर सांगून ते बरोबर येण्याची शक्यता ५० टक्के आहे. त्यामुळे हा प्रयोग एकापेक्षा जास्त वेळा करायला हवा. शिवाय बनवणार्‍यानं समजा मिश्रण नीट ढवळलं नाही, तर त्याचा परिणामही चवीवर होऊ शकेल. त्यामुळे अशा परिस्थितीत सगळे कप अचूकपणे ओळखण्याची अपेक्षा करणं गैर ठरेल. हे कप कोणत्या क्रमानं दिले जात आहेत, यावरही चव ओळखणं / न ओळखणं अवलंबून असू शकेल. या सर्व शक्यतांचा विचार करून त्या तरूण शास्त्रज्ञानं किती कप, कोणत्या क्रमानं दिले पाहिजेत आणि खरंच जर चवीत फरक असेल, तर किमान किती कप अचूकपणे ओळखता आले पाहिजेत याचं गणित मांडलं. हा तरूण शास्त्रज्ञ म्हणजेच आधुनिक संख्याशास्त्राचे जनक म्हणून ओळखले जाणारे सर रोनाल्ड फिशर. यातूनच पुढे फिशर यांनी “Design of Experiments (DoE) & Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)” या संकल्पनांचा विकास घडवून आणला.

आज बहुतेक सर्व क्षेत्रात DoE & ANOVA या संख्याशास्त्रातील तंत्रांचा मोठ्या प्रमाणावर वापर होतो. शेतात कोणत्या प्रकारचं खत, किती प्रमाणात वापरलं तर उत्पादनात वाढ होते हे ठरवायला याच तंत्राची मदत होते. अनेक शेतांमध्ये एकाच वेळी हा प्रयोग करायचा झाल्यास, प्रत्येक ठिकाणच्या मातीचे घटक वेगवेगळे असल्यामुळे खताच्या परिणामांमध्ये तफावत जाणवू शकते. ही तफावत दूर करून खताचा परिणाम अचूकरीत्या मोजणं, वेगवेगळ्या खतांची तुलना करून त्यांची गुणवत्तेनुसार क्रमवारी ठरवणं हे सगळं या तंत्राद्वारे शक्य होतं. जी गोष्ट झाडांबाबत घडते, तीच माणसांची. म्हणूनच, नवीन औषध बाजारात आणण्यापूर्वी करण्यात येणार्‍या चाचण्यांमध्येही हे तंत्र मोठ्या प्रमाणात वापरलं जातं. प्रत्येक रूग्णाची शारीरिक स्थिती वेगवेगळी असल्यामुळे औषधाचा परिणामही कमी-जास्त प्रमाणात दिसून येतो. त्यामुळे साधारण समान (वय, लिंग, वजन, आजाराची स्थिती इत्यादी) प्रकारच्या माणसांवरच एखाद्या औषधाची चाचणी केल्यास, ते औषध इतर प्रकारच्या व्यक्तींमध्ये प्रभावशाली ठरेल याची खात्री देता येत नाही. शिवाय नवीन येणारे औषध हानीकारक तर नाही ना (Side Effects) हे ठरवण्यासाठी देखील प्रायोगिक स्तरावर किमान किती लोकांना ते दिले पाहिजे, हे या तंत्राद्वारे ठरवलं जातं. दोन औषधांची तुलना करायची झाल्यास ती औषधे ज्या दोन गटांना दिली जातील, ते गट साधारणतः समान गुणधर्मांचे असायला हवेत. यामुळेच अलिकडच्या काळात, सौंदर्यप्रसाधनांच्या तुलनेसाठी, एकाच व्यक्तीच्या डाव्या हाताला एक आणि उजव्या हाताला दुसरं क्रीम लावूनही चाचण्या केल्या जातात. वेगवेगळ्या प्रकारच्या वेगवेगळ्या आकाराच्या समूहांवर केलेल्या या सगळ्या चाचण्यांमधील परिणामांची तुलना करून त्यावरून सार्वत्रिक निष्कर्ष काढण्याचं काम संख्याशास्त्रातील हे तंत्र करतं. अशा प्रकारे जिथे जिथे म्हणून विविधता आहे, तिथे तिथे हे तंत्र उपयोगी पडतं.

Back to Blog...

It has been really long, since I wrote...Dec-Jan is generally the most inspiring month for me (& probably for many young academicians like me) as it's a conference season. That's why, this blog also started in January, when I was overwhelmed by one such motivating experience. This year-end & New-year was no exception. It started with the alumni meet at our Department, where we actually got to meet many alumni about whom we had heard a lot; from our seniors as well as teachers. It was more like a family reunion for our ilk. Then came the conference to mark International Year of Statistics & Diamond Jubilee of our Department. Listening about Huzurbazar, Fisher and many more like them was really an interesting experience. 

Aurangabad Caves

After a while, we went for a conference at my Hometown. Visiting Aurangabad Caves, Panchakki after about 12-13 years was a refreshing experience. I had almost forgotten the beauty of these places. Getting to meet some old & new conference pals was as expected a nice experience. 

Then came a trip to Hyderabad, which was an unforgettable journey as we got to meet a living legend in Statistics, Prof. C. R. Rao. We got to talk to him and got a signed copy of his autobiography. This was really enthralling. The gallery at the C R Rao Institute was also worth visiting. We also got to meet some non-statisticians doing great work in Statistics. Getting to see the museums at Hyderabad was a pleasing by-product.

The latest in this series was a trip to Nashik for a national workshop. The journey to Nashik and the stay there were both amazing as I got to listen to many amusing anecdotes related to Statistics and Statisticians. It was really illuminating to see how even simple statistical tools can help us in real life.

Getting to meet so many great people has lengthened my wish-list. Let's see how many of them, I can  fulfill...


PS: Special thanks to Deep & Richa for their great company and lovely snaps...

On the Occasion of Statistics Day

Year 2013 is being celebrated as the ‘International Year of Statistics’. Since 2007, India started celebrating 29th June as the National Statistics Day. Most of us are scared of the numbers and the formulae that constitute the subject of Statistics. But, if used wisely these dreadful numbers and formulae can simplify the solutions of many real world problems. In fact, this has been proved many times even in the Indian context. At this juncture, I remember an incidence dating back to 1947. Our country was rejoicing at the newly acquired independence. However, at the same time, due to partition, some areas had a riotous situation. Red Fort in New Delhi was occupied completely by the refugees. Government had given the contract of providing food to these refugees to some contractor. But no one knew the actual count of refugees. As a result, the contractor took advantage of the situation and provided a huge bill. Due to explosive situation, it was almost impossible to enter the red fort and take the actual count of people. So, everyone was puzzled. At that time, a statistician named Dr. J. M. Sengupta came up with an interesting idea. Salt was the cheapest item among those foodstuffs. So, the contractor knew that he wouldn’t earn much by inflating the quantity of salt. Dr. Sengupta decided to use this knowledge. He estimated the average amount of salt consumed per head in the Indian families and used it to estimate the number of refugees inside the Red fort. This method was tested on another smaller colony of refugees and it was found to give accurate results. As a result, Statistics was useful in detecting the fraud.

The basic paper in Statistics “Ars Conjectandi” was written by Jacob Bernoulli, 300 years ago. This year also marks the 250th anniversary of the discovery of Bayes' theorem, which is useful in many fields. As a result around 124 countries and 2040 organizations all over the world have joined hands to celebrate this year as the International Year of Statistics. Special efforts are being made to increase the awareness about Statistics. The M.Sc. Statistics course in the University of Pune was started 60 years ago. So, to commemorate both these special occasions, Department of Statistics has planned various activities throughout the year and the concluding ceremony of these year-long celebrations will be held during an International conference and Alumni meet which would be organized in December 2013.

29th June is the birth anniversary of Dr. P. C. Mahalanobis, who is considered as the father of Statistical thinking in India. He played a major role in formation of policies regarding industrialization and economic planning in India. His work on sample surveys received a worldwide recognition. Indian Statistical Institute established in 1932, under his guidance has been continuously producing many statisticians who went on to achieve name and fame in the various fields of Statistics. An important Statistician from Maharashtra is Dr. P. V. Sukhatme. His work on hunger, malnutrition is noteworthy.

One more statistician who became famous world-over is Dr. V. S. Huzurbazar. Department of Statistics in the University of Pune was founded by Dr. Huzurbazar. He did his Ph.D. from Cambridge University and returned to India. He devoted all his energies for the growth of this newly established department thereby proving his mettle as a good administrator as well. He was awarded the coveted Adams Prize by Cambridge University. His work was efficiently continued by two of his students, Dr. S. R. Adke and Dr. B. K. Kale. Dr. Adke made significant contributions to the field of Statistics, during his stints as researcher/faculty members across various institutions in India, Australia, USA etc. He took sincere efforts to put in good shape the journal of Indian Statistical Association. Even until today, the Indian Statistical Association functions from the Department of Statistics, University of Pune and the journal is also published from the same department. Work of Dr. Adke was recognized by the “Distinguished Statistician Award”, which he received from the Indian Society for Probability and Statistics. Dr. Kale also had an illustrious career. Along with the Department of Statistics, University of Pune, he also played a major role in the growth and development of Department of Statistics, at the University of Manitoba, Canada. His books have been included in the syllabus of various universities. One of his books has been translated in Japanese. Dr. Kale received “Dr. P. V. Sukhatme” award from the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, Government of India. The same award was bestowed upon another Puneite Dr. J. V. Deshpande in 2012. Through his publications, Dr. Deshpande has contributed tremendously to survival analysis, which forms a basis of many problems in Medical science.

Due to the contribution of such stalwarts, the Department of Statistics, of University of Pune grew rapidly. Currently it is recognized as the Centre for Advanced Studies in Statistics by University Grants Commission. Every year around 50 students are admitted for M.Sc. course. Along with the fundamentals of Mathematical Statistics, these students get to learn about applications of statistics in various fields including Finance, Insurance, Economics, Genetics, Medical Statistics etc. Some students join research programmes such as M.Phil. and Ph.D. Due to ever-growing need for trained Statisticians, these students get placed in different sectors such as insurance, finance, software, pharmaceutical industries, banks, colleges, universities, research institutes, Indian Statistical Services etc.

Statistics has tremendous applications in the variety of fields, such as weather forecasts, psephology, market research, finance, economics, insurance, epidemiology, genetics, medical science, clinical trials, quality control etc. Statistics is required for assessment of efficiency of drugs, assessment of severity of the side-effects of the drugs, determining the causes of diseases such as cancer, maintaining the quality of the products, comparative study of efficiency of fertilizers, ranking of sportspersons, designing new insurance policies, determining the rate of spread of epidemic and accordingly the intensity of the measures to control this spread etc.

One more important contribution of Statistics, in the Indian history can be found in the works of Florence Nightingale. Her work as a nurse is well-known. But, she was a good statistician as well; in fact she was the first female member of the Royal Statistical Society. Her skill of representing the data into graphs proved useful for creating awareness about the health problems of soldiers. In those days, the reports on such issues used to be highly technical and hence were rarely read and understood by the politicians. As a result, no policy changes could be made due to lack of awareness about the severity of the problem. Her important contribution to the field of statistics was the Nightingale Rose Plot. It’s a variant of the pie diagrams that we generally see in the newspapers. In the pie diagrams, radius of each sector is same and the angle of the sector is proportional to the contribution of the corresponding fields, whereas in the Nightingale Rose plots, the angles are same for all the sectors and the radii are proportional to the contributions of the respective fields. Due to the simultaneous efforts on the statistical and medical fronts, Nightingale was successful in reducing the mortality rates among Indian patients from 69 per 1000 to 18 per 1000.

This is just a glimpse into the uses of Statistics. If you are further interested, you may visit the link: www.statistics2013.org. It also features a small video made by SAS company, to showcase the role of statistics in our daily lives. Prof. A. P. Gore, former head Department of Statistics, University of Pune has also composed a song for Statistics. You can listen to this song at: http://bit.ly/YcufiJ .

Amazon Story - 2

In continuation with the previous post, here are the points, due to which I may hesitate while ordering from Amazon again:

1. Even if you order and pay for things, you may not get them. You will get a refund (this is what they claim, I'm still unsure about that), but then we don't shop to get refunds. We shop for things that we need. So, if I have an urgent need for something, I won't rely on Amzaon as they tell you that they have run out of stock after a long wait. 

2. If your things don't get delivered, you have to complain first. They won't bother at all to inform you that  there is some problem with the order. They will keep on boasting on their site that they are processing your stuff and will deliver the things by the expected delivery date, which may even be a past date.

3. If they cancel an order due to non-availability of stock, they will completely erase that thing from your order history as if to wipe out all the evidences of the crime that they have committed. 

4. Sometimes after shipping, no tracking is possible. If some seller sends the things by some local courier, then it is okay. But, in one case, even for a seller whose parcel came by FedEx, tracking information was not available.

As a statistician, I know that this is a very small sample to conclude something about the "Brand Amazon", but I can't stop comparing this experience with my long time relationship with Flipkart, an Indian company, which is still a nascent company (compared to Amazon and ironically started by two ex-amazonians). 

I think I'll prefer buying from Flipkart, even if I have to pay a bit more because (as per my experience until now)

1. If you pay for something, you get that thing. They don't cancel your orders on their whim.

2. Until now, there has been no problem related to any order.

3. Even if you cancel some orders or don't pay for an order, all these orders are visible in your order history, with the appropriate remarks (Cancelled / Payment not received etc.). This helps you, specially if you want to place that order again.

4. Tracking page is always updated. In fact, the day on which you are supposed to get the delivery, you are alerted by an SMS. As a result, you can ensure that you are around when the delivery boy turns up.

5. If you cancel an order, you can store the refund amount in you Flipkart Wallet and use it for further purchases. This is faster than bank refund. I was a bit worried when I first used the wallet, as the balance in the wallet was not sufficient for my next order. But their system is smart enough and it deducted only the remaining amount (Price - Wallet balance) from my card.

I hope Amazon people will learn some day that "What a customer needs is a correct reply and not just a quick reply based on false information".

PS: I think I need to create a special label for my grievances: First it was Nokia, then Google and now Amazon. ;)

Amazon Story - 1

Recently Deep posted a status update on FB, saying "Just like chocolates, shopping also lifts the mood, bhalehi hi fir wo books hi kyun na ho or online kyun na ho". That was the day when we had ordered 10 books in a single day; 2 of them from Flipkart and 8 from Amazon. We have been a loyal customers of Flipkart, since last two years but had never ordered from Amazon before. This time, Amazon was offering exciting discounts for many good books and that too with free shipping for some of them. This tempted both of us to go on a shopping spree, just like last year. Then started the anxious waiting period. There are two types of anxieties: Nervous and Exciting. Initially, we were anxious excited; eagerly awaiting for having a glimpse at our newly acquired possessions, checking the tracking pages every now and then in the hope of new updates. In about 10 days, we got six of the books from Amazon and two from Flipkart. However, two from amazon were still pending. As the days passed, we started becoming anxious nervous. There was no change in the statuses of the books. I think here onwards, it's better to jot down the events chronologically:

18th June: I got an email from one seller saying that their stock was accidentally damaged and they cannot fulfill the order. So, they asked me if they can cancel the order. From the email, it seemed that refund is not the only option. So, I asked whether it is possible to get a delivery after a few days or so, as I was ready to wait. But, the seller claimed that the it was not possible and cancellation was the only option. This was a bit disappointing as I had ordered that book to gift it to a friend of mine and I had been happy to have found just the right gift at the right price. Now, giving that perfect gift is no more possible as the prices of the other available editions of that book are beyond my reach.

This experience increased our nervous anxiety. In case of the other book, Amazon was still showing Status as "Not yet dispatched" and "Expected Delivery Dates: 14 - 17 June, 2013". We started wondering whether these guys have got time machine which will help them deliver the book in past. ;)

Then there were few more days of anxious awaiting.

25th June: It was already one week past the cancellation date. But nothing emerged - neither the refund for the cancelled book nor the second book which was yet to be dispatched. The status quo of the status was maintained. The expected delivery date was still 14 - 17 June, 2013. Finally, our patience threshold was crossed. We decided to inquire about the actual status. We wrote an email to the customer care section and got an unexpected reply: "I see that your credit card that you chose for this order was deactivated and we were not able to charge for this order and hence we couldn't deliver the package for the book. However, we've already charged for the other book in the order and hence we were able to deliver this book to you."

Now here are a few things:

- Firstly, I had paid using debit card and not the credit card.

- Secondly, within minutes after payment I had got a confirmation email from Amazon and a message regarding deduction from the bank, both for the entire amount. So, I didn't see any reasoning in the argument that they had received payment for one book and not for the other book (as both the books belonged to the same order).

- Thirdly, the card with which I paid the bill is still active.

Irritated by this rude shock, I wrote to the executive again and got more worried about the refund status of the originally cancelled book. I wrote to the seller of the cancelled book to get update about the refund status. The seller contacted Amazon and here came their reply: "I have reviewed the order and it has been cancelled and the buyer has not been charged so no refund is required." 

In my opinion, this was the height of irresponsible behaviour, specially when Amazon is claiming to build "Earth's Most Customer-Centric Company".

Then I called up customer care executive twice, to explain the entire matter and got the reply that "Refund was not processed, because the other book from the same order is yet to be dispatched". I was relieved to hear that they are admitting that the payment is made. However, had I got the correct reply in the first place, it would have saved a lot of emails, calls and subsequently time and energy of both the sides (we and Amazon). 

26th June: I started my day again with an email from Amazon saying that the order of second book has also been cancelled and you will get the entire refund for two books. We were again irritated as we had no intention of cancelling that book. We couldn't see the reason behind this and frantically called up customer care again, only to be greeted by third person. I wanted to continue with the person with whom I had spoken  earlier as he had understood my entire problem and had reacted pretty sensibly. But this new person was not ready to handover the phone. So, I had to repeat my entire story, which I think she couldn't fathom. So, finally what she did was to keep me on hold on the pretext of checking the details and handed over the phone to the person, who had addressed this issue the earlier day. Here also, had she listened to my request of talking to the specific person, it would have saved time and energy of both of us. Finally, I got to know that the seller has again run out of stock and so my order was cancelled. The book is still available on Amazon, but with the different seller and so, I will have to order it again. There is no option of transferring the money directly to the new seller, though all of them are on the Amazon platform.

In short, the thing was an entire mess. I am hoping to get refund soon. I don't know if I will ever have the courage to order from Amazon again, due to the points, which I'll enlist in my next post.

Awakenings

“Awakening is not a thing. It is not a goal, not a concept. It is not something to be attained. It is a metamorphosis. If the caterpillar thinks about the butterfly it is to become, saying ‘And then I shall have wings and antennae,’ there will never be a butterfly. The caterpillar must accept its own disappearance in its transformation. When the marvelous butterfly takes wing, nothing of the caterpillar remains.” 

                                                                                                                     - Alejandro Jodorowsky

Just watched Awakenings, based on a book by Oliver Sacks. Brain has always been a little known and hence the most  fascinating part of human body; and hence this journey into an unexplored territory becomes a captivating experience thanks to the efficient direction by Penny Marshall and the brilliant performances by Robert De Niro and Robin Williams. 

This film reminded me of Big by same director. A 12 year boy who wakes up to realize that  he is a 30 year old man. The sudden change in the age surely stuns him; but at least the world around him hasn't changed. As a result somehow, he manages to survive and in fact becomes successful due to his innocence and curiosity which make him stand out from the maddening competitive crowd. 

However, on the canvas of life, the picture is not always rosy. We are shocked by the helplessness of the human race, even though we have progressed a lot. Robin Williams succeeds in transmitting the anxiety and urge of Dr. Sayer (specially when he says, "I don't know what the drug will do, I can't think of what it will do, but I just hope that it will work as a cure") to the audience. We sympathize with the patients and Dr. Sayer's efforts at awakening them. We rejoice to see them getting back from wherever they have been, to today's world. But at the same time the loss of so many years in life is too much to deal with. The person saying, "I know it is not 1926, but I just want it to be, because I don't have an experience of being older than 22" touches our hearts. The effect of all these on the relatives of the patients is equally noticeable. Their lives are interlaced with feeding and serving these catatonic patients. For some of them, this is the sole purpose of the life. So, they fail to come to terms with this sudden awakening. And then comes the climax... Leonard (Robert De Niro), who is at first happy to be back starts a new journey. He has a fighting spirit and develops a good companionship with Dr. Sayer. He wants Dr. Sayer to experiment on him, so that he can be of some use even through his sufferings.

In the end, it is not just the Awakening for patients. It is for the entire community. We realize the importance of simple things in life such as music, human touch and most of all, the relationships. To the staff at hospital, these catatonic patients are no longer like plants, simply to be fed and watered. All the staff (lead by Eleanor Costello (Julie Kavner)) start sharing the enthusiasm of Dr. Sayer and come up with ingenious tricks. Same effect trickles down to the audience. We start realizing the importance of small things in life and feel like stopping our complaints, especially when told by the endearing Leonard through his painful experience. And then, one starts believing that even a small experience can lead to an awakening which is an important part of life, because, as Gail Sheehy rightly said,

If every day is an awakening, you will never grow old. You will just keep growing.        

सफर संभाव्यतेच्या विश्वातील - २

सफर संभाव्यतेच्या  विश्वातील - १

“To understand God's thoughts we must study statistics, for these are the measure of his purpose.”

- Florence Nightingale

मार्च महिना म्हटलं  की  आठवण होते ती आंतरराष्ट्रीय महिला दिनाची. म्हणूनच आज दोन महिला संख्याशास्त्रज्ञांचा परिचय करून घेऊयात. त्यांपैकी पहिली म्हणजे फ्लोरेन्स नाईटिंगेल.  परिचारिका म्हणून तिचं काम आपल्याला माहित असतं. पण हीच नाईटिंगेल संख्याशास्त्राच्या क्षेत्रातही नावाजलेली आहे.  १८५९ मध्ये 'Royal Statistical Society' ची पहिली  महिला सभासद  होण्याचा सन्मान नाईटिंगेलला लाभला. माहितीचं  सर्वसामान्य लोकांना सहज समजेल अशा आलेखात रुपांतर करण्याचं  तिचं  कौशल्य वाखाणण्याजोगं होतं . त्यामुळेच दुर्लक्षित राहिलेला सैनिकांच्या आरोग्याचा प्रश्न सोडवण्यात तिला यश मिळालं . त्यापूर्वीचे संख्याशास्त्रीय अहवाल भलेमोठे, किचकट असल्याकारणानं सहसा राजकारण्यांकडून वाचले जात नसत. त्यामुळे त्या अहवालातील समस्यांवर उपायही शोधले जात नसत. याउलट चित्रात्मक मांडणीमुळे नाईटिंगेलचे अहवाल लोकांना सहज समजले आणि त्यामुळे समस्येचं गांभीर्य लक्षात येऊन  त्यावर उपाययोजना केल्या गेल्या.

संख्याशास्त्राच्या क्षेत्रातील नाईटिंगेलचं सर्वात महत्त्वाचं  योगदान म्हणजे,  तिने प्रकाशात आणलेले नाईटिंगेल रोझ प्लॉट.  आजकाल मोठ्या प्रमाणात वापरल्या जाणाऱ्या 'पाय आकृती'चंच हे दुसरं  रूप. वर्तमानपत्रात  पाय आकृती आपण नेहमीच पाहतो. विशेषत:  'रुपया असा आला, असा गेला' किंवा 'वेगवेगळी वर्तमानपत्रे वाचणाऱ्या  लोकांचे प्रमाण' अशा प्रकारच्या माहितीचं रुपांतर रंगीबेरंगी पाय मध्ये केलं जातं.  याचंच थोडं वेगळं  रूप म्हणजे नाईटिंगेल रोझ प्लॉट. या  आकृतीचा वापर साधारणत: मासिक/साप्ताहिक  माहितीसाठी केला जातो. याचं  वैशिष्ट्य म्हणजे वर्तुळाच्या प्रत्येक पाकळीचा कोन हा सारखाच असतो. पण प्रत्येक पाकळीची त्रिज्या (लांबी), ही वेगवेगळी असते. त्यामुळे मूळ पाय आकृतीप्रमाणेच यातही पाकळीचे क्षेत्रफळ हे त्या क्षेत्राच्या योगदानाच्या प्रमाणात असते. 

Nightingale Rose Plot

भारतीयांशी देखील नाईटिंगेलचे विशेष नाते आहे. १८६३   ते १८७३ या दहा वर्षांच्या कालावधीत नाईटिंगेलच्या प्रयत्नांमुळे भारतातील सैनिकांच्या मृत्यूचे प्रमाण हजारी ६९ वरून १८ वर आले.


अशीच दुसरी एक संख्याशास्त्रज्ञ म्हणजे जेनेट लेन क्लेपन.  क्लेपन ही देखील  खरं  तर वैद्यकीय क्षेत्रात होती. १९१२   साली तिनं पहिला 'Cohort Study' केला. Cohort म्हणजे काहीतरी एक गुणधर्म समान असणाऱ्या अनेक लोकांचा समूह. साधारणत: एकाच वेळी जन्माला आलेल्या १००० मुलांच्या वाढीचा तिनं अभ्यास केला. यांपैकी ५००  मुलांना आईचं दूध दिलं  गेलं  होतं  तर उरलेल्या ५००  मुलांना गाईचं दूध देण्यात आलं होतं. संख्याशास्त्रातील 't -test' आणि इतर काही साधनांचा वापर करून आईचं  दूध मिळालेल्या मुलांची वाढ अधिक चांगल्या रीतीनं होत असल्याचं  तिनं सिद्ध केलं. हा फरक आर्थिक स्थिती अथवा इतर कारणांवर अवलंबून नाही किंवा निव्वळ योगायोगही नाही हेही तिनं संख्याशास्त्रीय साधनांनी दाखवून दिलं.
पुढच्या काळात तिने 'Case Control Study' करून स्तनाच्या कर्करोगाची कारणे शोधून काढली. ५०० कर्करोगी महिला (Case) आणि साधारण समान स्थितीतील (वय, सामाजिक स्तर इत्यादी) ५०० इतर महिला (Control) यांच्याकडून  भरून घेतलेल्या ५० प्रश्नांच्या प्रश्नावलीतील उत्तरांवरून संख्याशास्त्राच्या साह्याने तिने कर्करोगाची कारणे  शोधून काढली. नंतरच्या काळात इतर संशोधकांनीही तसेच निष्कर्ष काढल्यामुळे  तिने दिलेली कारणे  आजतागायत वापरली जातात. विसाव्या शतकाच्या सुरुवातीच्या काळात दुहेरी डॉक्टर (MD + PhD) पदवी मिळवणाऱ्या फार थोड्या लोकांपैकी एक क्लेपन होय.
आजच्या पाय दिनाच्या दिवशी या दोन महिला संख्याशास्त्रज्ञांना अभिवादन करून थांबते.

सफर संभाव्यतेच्या विश्वातील - १

२०१३ हे वर्ष 'आंतरराष्ट्रीय संख्याशास्त्र वर्ष', म्हणून साजरं  केलं  जातंय. आपल्यापैकी बहुतेक जण हे गणित / संख्याशास्त्र म्हटलं  की "भोलानाथ उद्या आहे गणिताचा पेपर, पोटात माझ्या कळ येऊन दुखेल का रे ढोपर", याची आठवण होणारे. पण या संख्यांशी मैत्री झाली की संभव - असंभवतेची  गणितं  उलगडायला लागतात आणि मग अनेक अवघड प्रश्न चुटकीसरशी सुटतात. उदाहरणच घ्यायचं  झालं  तर १९४७ सालची एक घटना आठवतेय; तीसुद्धा आपल्या भारतातच घडलेली. फाळणीमुळे देशातील वातावरण तंग होतं. दिल्लीतला लाल किल्ला निर्वासितांनी व्यापला होता. त्यांना अन्नधान्याचा पुरवठा करण्याचं  कंत्राट सरकारनं एका कंत्राटदाराला दिलं  होतं. पण किल्ल्यात नेमके किती लोक आहेत हे कुणालाच ठाऊक नव्हतं. शिवाय परिस्थिती स्फोटक असल्यानं प्रत्यक्ष आत जाऊन मोजणी करणं अशक्य होतं.  साहजिकच कंत्राटदारानं भरमसाठ रकमेचं  बिल दिलं. त्या वेळी जे. एम. सेनगुप्ता नावाच्या एका संख्याशास्त्रज्ञानं एक क्लृप्ती लढवली. सगळ्या अन्नपदार्थांमध्ये मीठ हे सगळ्यात स्वस्त होतं. त्यामुळे वापरल्या गेलेल्या मिठाचं प्रमाण वाढवून दाखवून कंत्राटदाराच्या फायद्यात फारशी वाढ होणार नव्हती. त्यामुळे कंत्राटदारानं वापरलेल्या मिठाचं प्रमाण आणि सामान्यपणे आहारात वापरल्या जाणाऱ्या  मिठाचं दरमाणशी प्रमाण, यांचा वापर करून सेनगुप्ता यांनी संख्याशास्त्राच्या मदतीनं लाल किल्ल्यातल्या निर्वासितांच्या संख्येचा अंदाज बांधला.  दिल्लीतल्याच दुसऱ्या एका छोट्या छावणीतल्या निर्वासितांची प्रत्यक्ष गणना करून ही पद्धत उत्तमरीतीने काम करत असल्याचं  सिद्ध झालं. 

अशा या संख्याशास्त्रातील  Jacob Bernoulli   या महान शास्त्रज्ञाने लिहिलेल्या "Ars Conjectandi" या मूलभूत निबंधाच्या प्रकाशनास यंदा ३०० वर्षे पूर्ण होत आहेत. त्याचबरोबर अनेकविध क्षेत्रात उपयोगी पडणाऱ्या Bayesच्या प्रमेयाचा शोध लागूनही यंदा २५०  वर्षे पूर्ण झाली आहेत. त्यानिमित्तानं जगभर विविध उपक्रमांचं आयोजन करण्यात येतंय. सर्वसामान्य जनता आणि संख्याशास्त्र यांच्यातील दरी कमी व्हावी म्हणूनही काही खास प्रयत्न केले जात आहेत. तुम्हालाही या दुनियेची सफर करायची असेल तर www.statistics2013.org या संकेतस्थळास अवश्य भेट द्या. तेथेच आपल्याला दैनंदिन जीवनात कुठे - कुठे  संख्याशास्त्र भेटू शकतं  यासंबंधी SAS या कंपनीनं बनवलेला छोटासा व्हिडीओ देखील बघायला मिळेल.  आणि संख्यांना कशा निरनिराळ्या प्रकारे कामाला लावता येऊ शकतं  हे आपल्या मायबोलीत ऐकायचं असेल तर पुणे विद्यापीठाचे  माजी संख्याशास्त्र विभागप्रमुख प्रा. अनिल गोरे यांनी रचलेलं गीत ऐकायला तुम्हाला नक्कीच आवडेल.  

A Google Disaster

We were happily running our blog: Certain News about Uncertain World (no use of clicking since it is locked). In fact recently we had extended our presence on Facebook as well. We also got to meet many readers of our blog who were impressed by this venture. Our blog life was beautiful and everything seemed to make perfect sense until the moment we attempted making a Google+ page.

So what actually happened?

For making a Google page first of all we were asked to provide the Name. Though the Gmail account is named “Statistical Events”, Google + settings didn’t allow us with that name. So we named it “Akanksha Inderdeep”. Next step was to provide date of birth. We had created this blog on 2nd Feb 2011, so we have always considered this as the DoB of our joint venture. For a moment a thought came to our mind that if it had created so much fuss about name, then it might even retort on our age. But we went on to submit the information expecting not more than a pop-up prompting to change the DoB just like Name. And guess what happened the next moment…. Our account was disabled and we were asked to submit DoB proof within 29 days. We went to a state of shock. We were wondering whose DoB proof should be attached. At the same time a thought of copying stuff from blog flashed in our minds, to have raw material, just in case we need to start from square one.

And then came the biggest shock as a blogger. Our blog was removed. We hadn’t imagined, even in a nightmare that some such thing would happen in a matter of a click. We had invested a lot of time in meticulously maintaining this blog. We are robbed of our most prized possession.

Now what??

We have submitted a file with DoB proofs of both of us, since we don’t have ID with Akanksha Inderdeep K. We have also tried to explain our sad little story to them in that file itself. What we can do now is just wait and watch.

We already miss you alot..
Please come back soon !!!

The only ray of hope is that our blog is not dead yet. It’s in coma and even if it recovers it is in a danger of suffering from loss of memory. So please please please pray for us…

Afterword

Posted after 19 hours: Our blog life is back to normal :) :) . Seems Google people were really moved by our sad little story and chose to react quickly. Thank you all for your prayers ..

Old is Gold....

You might be wondering why am I saying "Old is Gold", when we are on the verge of entering a New Year.... But Nokia has forced me to say this...

This post is just to enlist a few things, which I miss these days. I enjoyed these features of my Nokia 1200 (at a throwaway price) but couldn't get them in Nokia Asha 302, even after paying heftily...(Compared to Nokia 1200)

Here are a few important of them:

1. Torch
2. Calendar: Nokia 1200 had a variety of calendars including Indian Lunisolar Calendar (the one which determines our festivals) and Indian National Solar Calendar (the scientific calendar approved by our constitution as our national calendar). Most of you may not recall what that National Solar Calendar is, but it was my topic of interest and so this mobile version of that was pretty handy. Indian Lunisolar Calendar I used to use regularly to check the holidays, be it Diwali, Holi or Ganapati...
3. Messaging in Devnagari: Messaging in Hindi/Marathi was another thing that I used to do religiously, at least while sending wishes on Indian festivals. Many a times, it's annoying to read a spelled version of Sanskrit/Marathi/Hindi texts and specially so, when it involves literary/poetic words. 
4. Call Screening/Screened Messages: Screening the unwanted numbers (some people playing pranks or insurance agents etc.) would lead to peace of mind, as those calls or messages wouldn't disturb your routine.
5. Inserting a number in a message: If I want to send a text message and insert some contact number in between, that could be done conveniently in Nokia 1200. In Nokia Asha 302, if you try doing something like this, it becomes a multimedia message and you can't send it to someone having basic phone. 
6. Timing of Message Delivery: In Nokia Asha 302, we get to know the delivery timings of the received messages and sent timings of the sent messages, which is actually totally useless. What one is interested in knowing is, when does your message get delivered or when has the sender sent it. This was exactly what I got in Nokia 1200 and it's highly necessary during network congestion or when you are out of reach...

Obviously, there are many new things in this new phone, since I have paid  more, but then in my opinion it doesn't make sense to remove the good features of the earlier versions.

जपानी (日本語) शिकताना - 3

जपानी (日本語) शिकताना - १

जपानी (日本語) शिकताना - २

हिसाशीबुरी  दा ना (खूप दिवस झालेत ना आपण भेटून ..). आजच्या भागात एका भाषेत विचार करून दुसऱ्या भाषेत बोलायला गेलं  की  कशा गमती होतात ते बघूयात .

याचं अगदी क्लासिक उदाहरण आमच्या भावना सेन्सेई नेहमी सांगतात. एकदा एका मुलाला "काल क्लासला का आला नाहीस? " असं  विचारल्यावर "मे गा किमाशीता (शब्दश: भाषांतर: डोळे आले होते.)" असं  उत्तर मिळालं . आता सेन्सेई पण मराठीत विचार करू शकत होत्या म्हणून ठीक. पण एखाद्या जपान्यानी हे उत्तर ऐकलं  कि तो बिचारा सॉलिड गोंधळणार हे काय प्रकरण आहे म्हणून....

 आणखी एक उदाहरण त्यांनीच सांगितलेलं... एकदा जपानमधल्या एका कंपनीत मीटिंग सुरु होती.   मीटिंग बरीच लांबल्याने थोडा ब्रेक घ्यावा असं  ठरलं.  भारतीय मंडळी कंपनीच्या कॅन्टीनमध्ये बसून पुढचा अजेंडा ठरवत होती. तितक्यात एका जपानी माणसाचा फोने आला. ही सारी कॅन्टीन मध्येच आहेत हे कळल्यावर तो जपानी माणूस म्हणाला, "We will also go". हे ऐकून भारतीय माणूस वैतागला. आपण ह्यांना उशीर होऊ नये म्हणून बाहेर न जाता कॅन्टीनमध्येच जेवतोय आणि आता हे कुठे निघालेत..शेवटी जेव्हा दुभाष्या मध्ये पडला तेव्हा कळलं की  तो जपानी माणूस प्रत्यक्षात "आम्ही कॅन्टीनमध्ये येतोय", असंच  सांगत होता. पण जपानीत आपली आहे ती जागा सोडणं म्हणजे "जाणं " असल्यामुळे त्यांनी शब्दश: भाषांतर करून "We will come" च्या ऐवजी "We will go", असा शब्दप्रयोग केला. सुदैवानं, दुभाष्याला हे बारकावे माहित होते म्हणून ठीक... 

कालही वर्गात अशीच मजा झाली. एखाद्या गोष्टीचं  कारण कसं  सांगायचं  तो वाक्याचा प्रकार आम्ही शिकत होतो. उदाहरणादाखल प्रत्येकानी एकेक वाक्य बनवा असं सेन्सेईनी सांगितलं . माझ्या एका मैत्रिणीनी "काल लग्नाला गेल्यामुळे मी क्लासला आले नव्हते" असं वाक्य बनवायचं ठरवलं. आता मराठीत स्वत:चं  असो की  दुसऱ्याचं, लग्न ते लग्नच. पण जपानीत लग्न समारंभाला वेगळा शब्द आहे. त्यामुळे "काल मी लग्नाला गेले होते" याचं  शब्दश: भाषांतर केलं की "काल माझं  लग्न होतं", असा अर्थ निघतो. साहजिकच तिचं वाक्य ऐकताना हा फरक माहित असणाऱ्यांची हसून पुरेवाट झाली.  

परवा असाच एक घोळ मी पण केला. "जिंको" म्हणजे Population, असंच लक्षात असल्यामुळे bacteria ची जिंको असा शब्दप्रयोग मी वापरला. आता खरं  तर जिंको म्हणजे लोकसंख्या. त्यामुळे मी नक्की bacteriaच्या संख्येबद्दल बोलतीये की माणसांच्या हे न कळल्यामुळे समोरची जपानी मुलगी पूर्णच गोंधळली आणि मला हा प्रकार कळलाच नाही. नंतर एका मैत्रिणीने जिंकोतला जीन म्हणजे माणूस हे लक्षात आणून दिल्यावर माझी ट्यूब पेटली. शब्द वापरण्यापूर्वी कांजी डोळ्यापुढे आणणं  सेन्सेईना का गरजेचं  वाटतं ते मला पहिल्यांदा इतक्या प्रकर्षाने  जाणवलं.  

असंच आणखी एकदा आम्ही काही वाक्य बनवत होतो. माझ्या मैत्रिणीनी "जखम झाली की रक्त येतं " असं  वाक्य बनवलं. नेहमीप्रमाणेच वाक्य आधी मराठीत बनवून नंतर जपानीत भाषांतर केलं आणि मग झाली कीपरत गडबड. जपानीत आतून बाहेर यायला वेगळा शब्द आहे. आणि तो न वापरल्यामुळे रक्त असं समोरून पळत पळत भेटायला  येतंय असं दृश्य डोळ्यापुढे आलं  आणि आम्ही पोट धरून हसायला लागलो.

पूर्वी एका लेखात मराठी पुस्तकं इंग्रजीत भाषांतरित करताना "जेवायला पाने घेतली", "लोक तमाशा बघत होते" अशा वाक्प्रचारांचे भाषांतर करताना विशेष काळजी घ्यावी लागते हे वाचला होतं . आता दिवसेंदिवस त्याचा प्रत्यय यायला लागलाय...

Back to Books

Haven’t written since long, as I was busy with shifting, volunteering for/attending workshop, studying, teaching, practicing Japanese song etc. Finally today, got time to look at two long abandoned friends of mine – books and blog.

New Additions to My Bookshelf

Recently, had a chance to visit a book exhibition at Institution of Engineers hall, Pune. The USP of the exhibition was the almost throw away price tag of Rs. 50/-. Obviously, we (me and deep) couldn’t resist the temptation of collecting the books in a hope to read them sometime later. We both had two visits to the exhibition – one individually, one together, which yielded in exactly a dozen books per head. Here is a snap of 11 of them. The 12th one “The Dictionary of Derivatives”, is in the department as it is the one that would help convert incomprehensible Greek letters of finance into apprehensible English letters. Don’t know when I am going to read so many of them, ‘coz even one per month would take entirely two years, during which there are surely going to be new entrants in the queue. But for the time being, I am happy to see these new books resting elegantly at my new home. After a 4-year long stay at hostel, which had enough space only for statistical books, this leisure stuff reminds me of my home, back in Aurangabad.

In school days, mostly my vacation plans would center only around books. Now a days I feel like going back to that time, when I wouldn’t keep the book down, until finishing it. Such days are now rare. In fact, so is the influence of computers, that after clicking this photograph, I thought of pressing ‘undo’ to rearrange the books in place. I hope the batch arrival of them would now help me to get back to them soon.

डॉ. सुखात्मे - नीलफलकाच्या निमित्ताने

आजच्या स्वातंत्र्यदिनी भारतमातेच्या एका सुपुत्राबद्दल लिहावं वाटलं, म्हणून ही पोस्ट. आजवर अनेक क्षेत्रात अनेक महान हस्ती होऊन गेल्या. पण बहुतेकदा त्या त्या क्षेत्रातील लोकांनाच त्यांच्या कार्याची महानता जाणवते. इतरांपर्यंत ती फारशी पोहोचतही नाही. कधी कधी तर अगदी आपल्या घरापासून हाकेच्या अंतरावर राहणाऱ्या दिग्गजांचीही आपल्याला माहिती नसते. "पुणे ऐतिहासिक वास्तू स्मृती समिती"च्या नीलफलक लावण्याच्या अतिशय स्तुत्य अशा उपक्रमामुळे आपण सामान्य लोक निदान आसपासच्या परिसरातील ज्येष्ठ - श्रेष्ठांना ओळखायला लागूत.

नीलफलकाची ही कल्पना मुळात लंडनमधली. लोकमान्य टिळकांच्या तिथल्या वास्तव्यस्थानी असा फलक लावला गेला, तेव्हा त्याने प्रेरित होऊन जयंत टिळक आणि दीपक टिळक यांनी असा उपक्रम इथे सुरु केला. काळकर्त्या शि. म. परांजपेंपासून सुरुवात करून आजवर या समितीने पुण्यात 116 फलक लावलेत.

मागच्या रविवारी पद्मभूषण पुरस्कार प्राप्त डॉ. सुखात्मेंच्या प्रभात रोडवरील "सांख्यदर्शन" या घरावर 116 व्या फलकाचे अनावरण झाले. डॉ. पांडुरंग वासुदेव सुखात्मे - संख्याशास्त्रात जागतिक स्तरावर पोचलेलं नाव. लंडनमध्ये संख्याशास्त्रात Ph. D. करून भारतात परतल्यावर बनारस हिंदू विद्यापीठात प्राध्यापक पदासाठी त्यांनी अर्ज केला. विद्यापीठाचे तत्कालीन कुलगुरू पं . मदनमोहन मालवीय डॉ. सुखात्मेंच्या शैक्षणिक गुणवत्तेने प्रभावित झाले खरे, पण संख्याशास्त्राचा भारताला गरिबीतून बाहेर काढायला कसा उपयोग होणार या पंडितजींच्या प्रश्नाला समर्पक उत्तर न देता आल्याने डॉ. सुखात्मेंनी याच प्रश्नाला आपलं जीवनध्येय बनवलं. बनारस विद्यापीठातील प्राध्यापकपद न स्वीकारता राष्ट्रीय कृषी संशोधन संस्थेत (ICAR) संख्याशास्त्रात संशोधक म्हणून त्यांनी काम सुरु केले. त्यांच्या अनमोल कार्यामुळे आज या संख्याशास्त्र विभागाचा विस्तार होऊन एक नवी संस्था IASRI उभी राहिलीये. भूक, कुपोषण या समस्यांवरील त्यांचं काम जगभर नावाजलं गेलं आहे.

केंद्र सरकारच्या सांख्यिकी व कार्यक्रम कार्यान्वयन मंत्रालयाच्या वतीने दर दोन वर्षाने एका ज्येष्ठ संख्याशास्त्रज्ञाला "डॉ. सुखात्मे पुरस्कार" दिला जातो. 2003-04 साली डॉ. बी. के. काळे तर 2011-12 साली डॉ. जे. व्ही. देशपांडे अशा दोन पुणेकरांना या पुरस्काराने सन्मानित करण्यात आले आहे. साहजिकच या नीलफलकाचे अनावरण डॉ. जे. व्ही. देशपांडे यांच्याच हस्ते करण्यात आले. त्यामुळे डॉ. सुखात्मेंच्या कार्याबद्दल डॉ. देशपांडेंच्या तोंडून "सांख्यदर्शन" मध्ये ऐकायला मिळणं आणि त्यानिमित्तानं अनेक संख्याशास्त्रज्ञांना भेटणं ही माझ्यासारख्या संख्याशास्त्राच्या विद्यार्थिनीसाठी पर्वणीच होती. शिवाय पद्मश्री डॉ. सुहास सुखात्मेंची भेट आणि त्यांच्या तोंडून त्यांच्या वडिलांच्या आठवणी ऐकणं हा तर एक अनपेक्षित बोनस होता. अशा रीतीने स्वातंत्र्यदिना पूर्वीचा रविवार एका उत्तम कार्यक्रमात सहभागी होण्याचा आनंद देऊन गेला.

If only - 2...

If only - 1...

Would it have hurt God to be a bit more systematic and create identical human beings, with identical thoughts… There wouldn’t have been any confusions, misunderstandings. World would have been a happier place and then people would have really believed in God. So, in the end it would have been a benefit to the God as well. Why didn’t he think of His own profit at least?

But if you were happy, would you really go to God just to thank him for whatever he has offered. If everyone around you is equally happy as you, you start thinking that getting this is your right and not a favour by God. So, no need to thank him. So, if God fulfills your wishes automatically, he won’t get any offerings. Seems God is far more foresighted and smarter than us. That’s why He is happy to keep us unhappy to secure His future.

But what about your future. We would have surely been happier to have like-minded people around us. There wouldn’t have been any quarrels, wars. So many lives would have been saved. Just imagine Duryodhan offering half of his kingdom to Yudhishthira, Ravan gracefully returning Seeta to Ram and so on. Surely, Mahabharata and Ramayana would have been a bit boring to read and watch. If everyone would have been logical and flexible, there would remain no uncertainty in life. It would be almost surely predictable.  कहानी में twist  आये बिना  climax का मजाही क्या ? So, it seems that God wanted our lives to be ‘खमंग’ and so he added so many flavours of dissent to it.

If you think a bit more calmly, is the person in front of you really illogical or stiff? Stubbornness on part of one person is irritating to you, but then are you not being equally stubborn in not accepting that person as it is? Why do you think that there is only one solution to the problem at hand? There may be an entire set of solutions, but the feasible region may vary from person to person as per his constraints. So, you have to optimize the results subject to the constraints of all those who are involved in this problem some way or other. That seems to be a real skill and it will be really thrilling if you could attain the optimum within the constraints of most, if not all. Because, the variety of these constraints is commendable. God seems to have put in a lot of thought and creativity in crafting each piece on this Earth, including yourself. So, why not simply enjoy being a part of this bigger plan and play your role in the best possible manner, instead of cursing God for this lovable diversity, without which the earth would have been a storehouse for the machine outputs?

If only - 1...

If only everyone in this world would have been a bit more logical, practical and flexible…

I think this is the thought which comes to most of us every now and then. I am not an exception. It seems that this thought is not going to leave me today. It is said that, “Compromise is an art of dividing a cake in such a way that everyone believes he got the biggest piece”, but for now, it seems that “Compromise is a situation where everyone is satisfied; not because that he’s got the biggest piece but because he thinks that he has made the biggest sacrifice”. Thus, compromises simply become deals, where you start calculating your profits, losses and net gains. And once these calculations start, you can’t resist the temptation of calculating the expected net gain in the near future, then in the far future and so on… You start thinking and planning about the future. All the self-help stuff you have read until now has taught you to be prepared for the worst. So, you start enlisting the possible obstructions on your route (your mind has the best creativity when it comes to visualizing the pits and falls, ‘coz “ मन चिंती ते वैरी न चिंती”), then think about the bypasses that you could take, expected cost for them and so on…. You are so lost in these, that you simply forget to enjoy whatever small piece of cake you have in your hand right now…

Then someone suggests the solution… Don’t look far away.

You somehow convince your mind to stay in the present after unlearning the things about future that you have read in those best selling stuffs. But your mind has been used to working so hard that it can’t stand still. It starts roaming aimlessly in your present as well. It starts comparing your piece of cake with what others have got in their hand – “that person over there has a smaller piece than mine, but it has got a cherry on it and the one here looks so yummy with such a thick creamy layer…”. Alas!, you got a new reason to be unhappy.

So, you can’t think of future, you can’t remain in present and you have already cried so much over the past that returning there is not even an option. It seems that God has been really cruel to mankind....

Enthralling Revivifications...

Recently watched two fascinating movies, both underscoring the fact that,

"Success is how high you bounce when you hit the bottom.”

La vita è bella (Life is Beautiful)

"This is a simple story, but not an easy to tell. Like a fable, there is sorrow… and, like a fable, it is full of wonder and happiness..."

With these words, starts our journey into a simple life of a simple person. A romantic waiter Guido trying to impress a  school-teacher Dora with his sense of humour and presence of mind. He manages to snatch her away from her fiancé while serving at their engagement ceremony. Later on he opens his dream bookstore. They have a beautiful son Giosué and it seems to be a perfect life until their little fairy world is shattered by the World War II. Then starts a struggle for survival... the story of life and death, where even a single unintended word or action may result in loss of your life. The courage, optimism and presence of mind of Guido (played by Roberto Benigni (who is director and one of the writers as well) and the innocence and faith of his equally witty son Giosué (played by Giorgio Cantarini) leave us spellbound throughout this second half of the movie.

The Shawshank Redemption

Topping the IMDB list for a long is a story of a successful banker who ends up in jail being charged with the murder of his wife. It's a story of a bonding between this snobby looking professional Andy (played by Tim Robbins) and an unsophisticated prison-mate Red (played by Morgan Freeman). How Andy proves that "Hope is a good thing" and "Salvation lies within" is really worth watching and worth listening to through Red's distinctive voice. The director Frank Darabolt scores by his attention to details.

The strategic planning by Andy is in contrast to the impulsive actions of Guido (in La vita è bella), but both live up to their images of a trained professional and a simple small-town waiter turned bookseller respectively. It is said that no words can convey the sweetness of sugar. The same holds true with these movies. You have to really experience them, to get a hang of it.

PS: Special thanks to Richa and Deep for recommending these masterpieces.

जपानी (日本語) शिकताना - 2

जपानी ( 日本語 ) शिकताना - 1

आमचा जपानीचा क्लास सुरु झाल्यावर थोड्याच दिवसात म्हणजे 6 ऑगस्टला "तानाबाता फेस्टिवल" होता. आकाशगंगेमुळे एकमेकांचा विरह सहन कराव्या लागणाऱ्या ओरिहीमे आणि हिकोबोशी या दोन ताऱ्यांचा भेटण्याचा दिवस म्हणजे हा सण. ओरिहीमे ही तेन्तेईची (आकाशाच्या राजाची) मुलगी. लग्नानंतर दोघांचंही आपआपल्या कामाकडे दुर्लक्ष होऊ लागल्यानं चिडून तेन्तेईने दोघांना आकाशगंगेच्या दोन बाजूंना टाकलं. विरहानं दु:खी झालेल्या ओरिहीमेवर दया आल्यानं मग तेन्तेईने वर्षातून एकदा म्हणजे चांद्र दिनदर्शिकेनुसार सातव्या महिन्याच्या सातव्या दिवशी दोघांना भेटण्याची परवानगी दिली. तो दिवस म्हणजे तानाबाता फेस्टिवल. ही सारी गोष्ट ऐकताना चंद्र-दक्ष-रोहिणी यांची चंद्राच्या क्षय-वृद्धी संबंधातली कथा आठवली. आणि जाणवले, संस्कृती भारतीय असो की जपानी की आणखी कुठली. सण - उत्सवांच्या कथांचा मूळ गाभा तोच.

नंतर आले ते कोरे, सोरे, आरे, दोरे. थोडक्यात हे, ते, ते तिथले आणि कोणते. यांच्यानंतर "वा" पार्टिकल लावून "कोरे वा कोकुबान देस" म्हणजे "हा फळा आहे", अशी वाक्ये सुरु झाली. मग कुणीतरी शोध लावला. बहुदा "दुरून डोंगर साजरे " प्रमाणे जपानी लोकांना दूरच्या वस्तू आवडतात. म्हणून दूरच्या वस्तूबद्दल बोलायची सुरुवातच " आरे वा" अशी होते. हे सारं अचल वस्तूंसाठी. साधारण अशाच धर्तीवर चल - अचल सर्वांसाठी चालणारे हे, ते, त्या तिथले आणि कोणते म्हणजे कोनो, सोनो,  आनो, दोनो . इथे, तिथे, त्या तिकडे आणि कुठे असं जागेबद्दल बोलायचं झाला की कोको, सोको,  आसोको, दोको; दिशांबद्दल बोलायचं झालं की कोचिरा, सोचिरा, आचिरा, दोचिरा; अशी को, सो, आ, दो ची जणू नवी बाराखडीच शिकायला मिळाली.

त्यानंतर शिकवली गेली ती वेगवेगळ्या देशांची जपानीतील नावे. भारत, इंडिया, हिंदुस्तान इतकी नावे कमी आहेत की काय म्हणून आता जपानीत भारताला "इंदो" म्हणायचं हे कळले. तीच गत आपल्या शेजाऱ्याची . चायना, चीन आणि आता च्यूगोकू . "देशवासीय" म्हणजे "~जिन ". म्हणजे आपण सारे "इंदोजिन". एकूणच या साऱ्यामुळे "भाषा" या प्रकाराचा धसका बसला की मग कुठल्याही भाषेचं नाव काढलं की पळून जायची इच्छा होणार, हे जाणूनच बहुदा प्रत्येक भाषेच्या नावानंतर “go” लावायची पद्धत आहे जपानीत. आपली मातृभाषा मराठीगो, राष्ट्रभाषा हिंदीगो आणि सध्या आपण शिकतोय निहोन्गो.

शिवाय नम्रपणे बोलायचं झालं तर शक्यतो आपल्या समोरच्या व्यक्तींना कधीही तू / तुम्ही म्हणायचं नाही . समजा वीणा नावाच्या मुलीला, तुला काय आवडतं , असं विचारायचं असेल तर “तुम्हाला काय आवडतं ” असं न विचारता “वीणासानला काय आवडतं ” असं विचारायचं . म्हणजे एखाद्या भारतीयानं हे ऐकलं तर अगं मग ती कोण वीणा तिलाच विचार नं, दुसऱ्यांना कशाला विचारतेस असा अनाहूत सल्ला येणार. पण मग थोडा विचार केला आणि “आऊसाहेबांची काय आज्ञा आहे आमच्यासाठी?” असं जिजाऊना आदरपूर्वक विचारणारे शिवराय आठवले.

एकूणात काय तर दोन भाषांमधली साम्यस्थळे आणि भेदस्थळे यांचा अभ्यास करणं हे मजेशीर ठरतंय.

जपानी (日本語) शिकताना - 1

खूप दिवसांपासून, खरं तर खूप वर्षांपासून एखादी परदेशी भाषा शिकायचा विचार करत होते. पण काही न काही कारणानं ते टळतच गेलं. शेवटी मागच्या जून - जुलैत सगळ्या गोष्टी जुळून आल्या आणि ऑगस्ट मध्ये अस्मादिकांचं जपानी प्रशिक्षण सुरु झालं. जपानी, चीनी भाषा म्हटलं की पहिली आठवते ती किचकट चित्रलिपी. त्यामुळेच बहुदा मी कुठलीही युरोपीय भाषा न निवडता जपानी निवडली. शिवाय शिस्तप्रिय आणि कमी साधनसंपत्तीच्या जोरावरही समृद्ध, प्रगत बनलेल्या, अणुबॉम्बमुळे बेचिराख होऊनही फिनिक्सप्रमाणे उड्डाण करणाऱ्या जपान बद्दल इतर देशांपेक्षा जरा जास्तच आपुलकी होती ती वेगळीच.

“はじめまして(हाजीमेमाश्ते)” असं म्हणून एकमेकांशी ओळख झाली आणि मग सारे वर्गमित्र हे ~さん(सान) बनले. प्रत्येकाच्या नावानंतर सान लावूनच हाक मारायची जपानी नम्रता अंगी बाणवायचा प्रयत्न सुरु झाला. स्वाती 先生 (सेन्सेई - teacher) आणि हर्षदा 先生 च्या मदतीनं, आम्ही जपानीच्या बालवाडीत प्रवेश केला. जपानला जपानीत “ 日本 (निहोन किंवा निप्पोन)” म्हणतात हे ऐकून "इंडिया - भारत"ची आठवण झाली आणि एक समान धागा मिळाला. जपानी राष्ट्रध्वजाचं वर्णन आणि इतर तांत्रिक माहिती घेऊन आमचा वर्ग सुरु झाला.

सुरुवातीला फक्त मौखिक असणाऱ्या या भाषेत आता ३ लिपी आहेत – हिरागाना, काताकाना आणि कांजी . हिरागाना आणि काताकाना या प्रत्येकी ४६ अक्षरांच्या वर्णमाला आणि कांजी ही पारंपारिक चीन कडून आयात केलेली चित्रलिपी. कांजींची संख्या तर हजारोत. त्यामुळे यंदा आपल्याला हिरागाना, काताकाना आणि १५० कांजी शिकायच्या आहेत हे ऐकून धडकीच भरली. चौकोनात प्रमाणबद्धपणे आणि ठराविक दिशेने आणि क्रमाने रेषा काढून वहीत उमटणारी अक्षरं मनाला आनंद द्यायची. पण हीच अक्षरं त्याच्या रेषाक्रमासह (stroke order) लक्षात ठेवणं अवघड जाई. शिवाय, अक्षरांचे उच्चार आठवणं म्हणजे अजूनच तारांबळ. हिरागानातला “से” थोडा थोडा देवनागरीतल्या “ए” सारखा दिसतो. मग इतक्या वर्षांपासूनच्या “ए ” ला क्षणभरापुरतं विसरून “से” म्हणणं, फारच अवघड होतं. मग थोड्या दिवसात आलं ते 日本語初歩 (निहोन्गो शोहो) नावाचं पाठ्यपुस्तक. त्यामुळे लेखन, वाचन आणि संभाषण अशा तीन पातळ्यांवर भाषा विकासाचे आमचे प्रयत्न सुरु झाले. शुभ प्रभात, शुभ रजनी या नेहमीच्या शुभेच्छांसोबतच घरातून बाहेर पडणं, परत येणं, जेवण सुरु करणं, संपवणं, दुकानात येणं इत्यादी अनेक गोष्टींसाठीचे नवनवे शुभेच्छासंदेश आमच्या शब्दकोशात भर टाकत होते. मराठी - हिंदी - इंग्लिश पेक्षा जाणवलेलं प्रमुख वेगळेपण म्हणजे अनेकवचनांचा अभाव. एक झाड पण की आणि अनेक झाडे पण कीच. इथंही इतक्या वर्षांपासून डोक्यात घट्ट बसलेल्या की म्हणजे किल्ली या समीकरणाला छेद द्यावा लागत होता. पण वचन एकच असलं तरी अनेक वस्तू झाल्या की मोजाव्या लागणारच. आजवर या चराचर सृष्टीतील यावज्जीव सजीव - निर्जीवांना मोजण्यासाठी १, २, ... या एकाच अंक - तागडीत तोलायची सवय होती. पण जपानीत तर माणूस, प्राणी, पक्षी, लांब वस्तू, इमारती, यंत्रे, सपाट वस्तू अशा अनेक तऱ्हेच्या वर्गवारींसाठी स्वतंत्र मोजणी तक्ते. ते सारे लक्षात ठेवून सुयोग्य जागी वापरताना नाकी नऊ येत. मग आले विशेषण – क्रियापदांचे प्रत्येकी २ आणि ३ प्रकार. पुढे पुढे जशी मोठी वाक्यं आली तशी भारतीय भाषा आणि जपानीतली समानता दिसायला लागली. त्यामुळेच, जपानी वाक्यं इंग्लिश पेक्षा मराठी -हिंदीत अनुवादित करणं सोपं जात असे. शिवाय, करून ठेव, बघून घे, करून बघ अशी दुहेरी क्रियापदंही जपानीत आहेत.

अशा अनेक गोष्टींचा वेध घेत घेतच वर्ष संपलं. सध्या इथेच थांबते. उरलेल्या वैशिष्ट्यांवर परत कधीतरी बोलूयात. じゃまた( ज्या -माता) .